The Column

Thursday, August 27, 2009

So what are your odds of dying?

Last I looked, it's 100 percent. Why?

Oh. You want to know when? Or how?

This is according to the LiveScience website:

The site, DeathRiskRankings.com, is the brainchild of researchers and students at Carnegie Mellon University. It provides answers based on publicly available data from the United States and Europe, comparing mortality risks by gender, age, cause of death and geographic region. Put your info in, and it produces the probable causes of your demise and provides insight on the timing of that unfortunate event ... the site can compare such things as the odds of death next year by breast cancer for, say, a 54-year-old Pennsylvania woman or her counterpart in the United Kingdom ... of course the results produced by the web site speak to groups of people and cannot predict with accuracy when you might actually kick the bucket. The timing of your own end is based on many uncharted factors, from heredity to lifestyle to untimely accidents.

I just took a cursory look at this, and it's awfully simplistic. There's nothing immediately available for real specifics -- like whether I smoke, drink, drive fast, have a family history of certain illnesses, or go through sketchy neighborhoods at 2 a.m. yelling insults. On the basic view, the calculator merely asked for age (50-59), gender, country (USA or United Kingdom), region (the south Atlantic), gender, and forecast period (in this case, one year). Here are the findings, based on my own scant information:


 Cause of DeathMicroMort

Total7,828

Accidents506

Accidents - Other23

Blood diseases20

Cancers2,411

Circulatory system diseases2,491

Congenital defects20

Digestive system diseases529

Endocrine/metabolic diseases331

Homicide49

Ill-defined symptoms/causes74

Infectious and parasitic diseases270

Mental and behavioral disorders123

Musculoskeletal diseases25

Nervous system diseases132

Non-cancerous growths34

Perinatal problems0

Respiratory diseases397

Skin diseases7

Suicide284

Undetermined - Homicide Suicide or Poisoning?24

Urinary tract diseases78

If you can figure this out, let me know. And if you have time to play with this site, have fun.

Some interesting things, though ...

"It turns out that the British woman has a 33 percent higher risk of breast cancer death. But for lung/throat cancer, the results are almost reversed, and the Pennsylvania woman has a 29 percent higher risk," explained Paul Fischbeck, site developer and professor of social and decision sciences and engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon. "Most Americans don't have a particularly good understanding of their own mortality risks, let alone ranking of their relevant risks," said David Gerard, a former professor at Carnegie Mellon who is now an associate professor of economics at Lawrence University in Appleton, Wis.




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