How bad is the economy?
Forget looking at the usual indicators. Unemployment numbers, productivity, and foreclosure rates give only part of the picture, but there are some other, equally reliable, things to study to get the real picture close up.
Like checking your own underdrawers.
I'm not talking about what suddenly happens to them when you get a layoff notice or your house gets foreclosed. Just check the condition of them. If they have holes or the waistband is pulled out of stretch, it usually means time to replace them. That is, if you can afford it.
But when money's tight, you're going to cut corners. You may find more hamburger and fewer steaks in your freezer. You may go for the dollar menu at the nearest fast-food emporium instead of dinner at that Thai restaurant you used to frequent. And you may skimp on replacing your underdrawers.
Face it. Few people know whether someone's wearing boxers, briefs, or butt floss under most circumstances. And if you look like me, even fewer people are going to care. Worn-out briefs are not as readily noticed by the public as, say, a coffee-stained shirt or a run in the stockings. Your own hindparts are not going to know the difference except for maybe a little extra ventilation. Underwear sales are a fair indicator of what's happening in the financial world.
I've noticed lately my local WalMart is selling boxers at deep discounts, a three-pack for little bit of nothing. It's not just a back-to-school sale, 'cause the young'uns are already back in school. But they're mildewing on the store shelves. Folks are just not bothering with them. They'll last another year.
From Time, here are some more indicators that your economists don't think about -- but real people do:
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1. Appalachian Trail Hikers. When the going gets tough, the tough take a hike. There's been a spike in the number of hikers making the long trek—meaning plenty of people have plenty of free time on their hands.
2. Immigrants in the U.S. After rising for decades, the number of foreign-born residents has stalled. Apparently, immigrants just aren't as attracted to this country as they once were.
3. Men's Underwear Index. When the economy is stable, the sale of men's underwear remains flat and strong. But when money is tight, sales drop pretty quickly as men tend to wear their skivvies more times before replacing them. After all, nobody (or not that many people) sees your tightie whities or boxers. In 2009, men's underwear sales are expected to be down for the first time in years.
4. The Reselling of Cemetery Plots. When people buy one of these, you gotta assume that the thought never entered their heads that one day they'd want to—or have to—sell before putting them to use. People need the money, and suddenly cremation is cool.
5. Pro Football Games Blacked-Out on TV. As the NFL season opened, a dozen teams had not sold out their home games, and with blackout rules that means that viewers at home might not be able to watch those games on TV. They blackout games to encourage people to buy tickets, but fewer folks today are eager to drop big bucks on something that (normally) they can enjoy for free from home. Blackouts are just one reason fans may feel alienated by the NFL.
6. Fewer Babies Born, Fewer Babies Planned. In one survey, 44 percent of women said that they were going to put off having kids or have fewer kids because of the economy.
7. The Toughness of Marine Ads. The Marines have met all of their recruitment goals, as typically occurs when the job market is bad. And so ads on TV are showing the toughest side of being a Marine, with barbed wire and even some dry heaving. Why? Because now they can be picky, and they want to attract the toughest, most highly motivated recruits.
8. Coupon Redemption. The numbers are already up 23 percent so far this year, demonstrating that people are eager to save money. And you know who is more likely to be clipping those coupons? Folks who are well-to-do.
9. Long-Distance Relationships. Because job prospects are so hard to come by, people are more inclined to relocate for a good offer, even if that means leaving a loved one behind.
10. The Hot Waitress Index. Here's the theory: When times are flush, attractive women in big cities have many opportunities to make money through marketing gigs, modeling, hosting parties, and such. When times are less than flush, those opportunities dry up, and then restaurateurs scoop them up to wait tables—and to attract diners who like being served by hot waitresses.
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I'd consider a few other indicators here:
Sales of cheap food: I'm talking about Kraft Macaroni & Cheese, dried beans and rice, and peanut butter. Even when times are flush, I always must have peanut butter in my pantry. But it's turning into a staple, along with the beans, rice, and grits.
More people doing things themselves: The Lowes' and Home Depots are doing good business, and even the mechanically challenged are trying to do their own repairs. If this crisis continues, you just might see more home surgeries -- gee, I hope not.
Cancelled Internet accounts: Shoot, I save a few bucks every month by going to the library or community college, setting up my laptop, and working on a public wifi hotspot. Plus, it's probably better for me anyway, because I'm so easily distracted.
Ditching the landline: That makes good economic sense anyway. What with cell phones and wireless Internet getting more reliable, hard phone lines become less relevant.
Thrift stores advertising on the radio: I kid you not; they are. They're doing big business, too. Even cool people shop there.
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You tell me: What other real-life indicators are you noticing? Use the comments section for input. Oh, I'm not going to ask you about the condition of your shorts, and please don't volunteer ... that's definitely TMI.
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