The Column

Friday, November 13, 2009

People may vote with their pitchforks in 2010

You hear about this every so often, but now the numbers are showing it. Voters are in a mood to throw the bums out.

This is from CNN's Political Tracker:

According to a new Pew Research Center poll, 52 percent of registered voters would like to see their own member of the House of Representatives re-elected next year, while just over one in three say that most members of Congress should be returned to office. Both numbers come close to the all-time lows seen just prior to the 1994 election, when the Republicans won control of Congress, and the 2006 contest, when the Democrats returned to power in both chambers.

It's interesting to see these numbers, particularly because it could be a harbringer of another 1994. Keep in mind, that was two years after Bill Clinton was elected to his first term. And Clinton wasn't nearly as big on change as Barack Obama is.

Not surprisingly, it's the Republicans and independents who are sharpening their pitchforks right now. According to the Pew poll, 42 percent of independents would like to see their own representative brought back, and one in four wants to see the same gang of idjits in Congress.

Polls by both Pew and CNN indicate Republicans are stoked about next year's election. CNN polling director Keating Holland likens this to a football team that just got the ball:

"The party that is out of power usually gets to play on offense, while the party in power is essentially playing defense," Holland says. "Playing offense gets your team pumped up. Maybe the same psychology is at work on the political playing field this year."

Right now, the Democrats have a 258-177 advantage (an edge of 81 seats) in the House and a 20-seat margin in the Senate. Next year, all 435 House seats and more than a third of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.

I subscribe to many different news outlets and a lot of blogs from all sides -- liberal, conservative, libertarian -- and I can pick up on that same throw-'em-out feeling. The Tea Party move is just a part of it. But there's a lot more noise being made now than there ever was before the 1994 elections, and the 2010 vote is just a little short of a year away.

I'll admit, the Republicans do sound a lot like the old Brooklyn Dodgers right now: "Wait 'til next year." And almost every year, the Brooklynites got smoked by the New York Giants or St. Louis Cardinals, as thoroughly as the Republicans were drubbed in 2008.

But I'm expecting some sea changes made in the makeup of Congress next year. There's no way around it. The Obama presidency -- backed by the Democratic House and Senate -- is making the most polarizing decisions I've seen since I was old enough to open the newspaper by myself.

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(I got this art from a website honoring illustrator Willard Mullin, who penned the famous wait-til-next-year Brooklyn Bum. This one's from the Brooklyn Dodgers' 1952 yearbook -- and no, I'm not that old!)

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