The Column

Saturday, October 25, 2008

After test, Obama may resemble Carter

Vice presidential candidate Joe Biden recently said his running mate, Barack Obama, will likely be tested with a global crisis within months of his inauguration.

Biden compares this with all the fun stuff Jack Kennedy had to deal with during his first months in office. JFK was immediately tested by Soviet head Nikita Kruschev and perennial Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, leading to the well-named Bay of Pigs fiasco and, eventually, the Cuban missile crisis.

Although Biden probably made the statement as a backdoor comparison to JFK (who is still lionized by many in the USA though I'm not sure why), he probably didn't do Obama any favors here. Hey, if Barack has friends like this, he sure doesn't need enemies.

But it may be Biden's propensity for verbal gaffes that prevented this statement from growing further legs and creating a shift in the electorate. Either that, or the populace may be numbed by all the he-said/she-said crap in the campaign (will it be over soon?). But really, Biden's statement should scare any thinking person, as it mirrors our history.

I mentioned Jack Kennedy's crises, and yes, there are parallels. A fresh, untested face taking over from a two-term incumbent in Dwight Eisenhower. To JFK's credit, he willingly took heat over the mishandled Bay of Pigs invasion and acquitted himself well with the missile crisis. We saw that again in 1980 after Jimmy Carter (a one-term governor, also unknown) took over from eight years of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. That's about when things went all squirrelly in Iran, the Soviet Union, and Afghanistan. It also didn't take long for the public to realize Carter was totally overwhelmed as a leader, miscast as a commander in chief.

And, oh yes, let us not forget our incumbent in the White House. Bush II took over after eight years of Bill Clinton, and within a year faced what was, at the very least, the biggest strike against America since Pearl Harbor. But while in the days after 9/11 Bush showed decisiveness and 'nads in going after the Taliban in Afghanistan, his insistence that Iraq was part of that mix rightly proved to be his undoing.

You might as well carve this in granite: After a major power shift, expect a major test. So Biden's right.

There are plenty of candidates for spoiling the presidential honeymoon if Obama is elected. You've got Russia, flexing its muscles and proving to be nothing but a payday friend (which is what us working folks call someone who only shows up when you get your paycheck). There's Venezuela, with a lot of oil and a Castro wannabe at the head. South Korea and Iran, both trying to build up some nuclear capabilities and run by crazy people, have taken a number and are in the waiting room right now. If Mexico (one of our biggest suppliers in oil and illegal immigrants) starts getting froggy with Obama, I would not be surprised.

I'm not optimistic about testing Obama's mettle. I don't know the man (really, no one does), but I think he'll more likely be a Jimmy Carter than a Jack Kennedy. I'm serious. He's making noises about sitting at the bargaining table with Venezuela's Chavez, Kim Il Whatshisname of North Korea, and al-Whoozitwhatsit of Iran, trying to shake something out. Sorry. You don't bargain with guys as whacked as they are. I couldn't see JFK trying that, but it would be right up Carter's alley.

OK. Biden may nave been making this statement from a familiar position, with both feet in his mouth (he once invited a wheelchair-bound legislator to stand up and be recognized, and referred to Obama as an African-American who is "clean").

But I don't think so. There's too much proof in the history.


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