The Column

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Discount stores and home surgery: What's hot?

While the economy is in the tank, companies are downsizing, and your investment portfolio shows you may be qable to retire when you're 108, some companies are going the other way.

Growth is happening at Walgreens. Gamestop, a company I've never heard of, is doing well. And your discount stores are doing great.

This is according to CoStar Group, a real estate information provider that tracks which companies are growing and which ones are shrinking. CoStar's methodology is fairly simple -- which retail chains plan to add new stores?

According to CoStar, the 250 major retilers it tracks plan to open 4,000 new stores this year and close about 3,600. But even these numbers don't look all that hot. If all 4,000 stores really open this year, that number is still down 39 percent from store-opening activity two years ago.

What's interesting is the list of retailers that are still growing at this point:

1 - Walgreens, with 540 new stores planned.
2 - Dollar General, 450 new stores.
3 - CVS, with 275.
4 - Gamestop, with 250 new stores on the drawing board.
5 - Dollar Tree, with 235.
6 - Family Dollar, with 200.
7 - WalMart Supercenter, with 125. World domination is a tough business.
8 - Aldi, with 80.
9 - Target, with 75.
10 - Tractor Supply Co., with 75 new stores.

Dollar General and Family Dollar are both deep-discount stores, where you can get just about anything for little bit of nothing. I'd never heard of either company until I moved east of the Mississippi, so there's probably some virgin territory for those two companies. They're nearly interchangeable; I sometimes refer to the Family Dollar General store if I can't remember which one is nearby. Doesn't take genius to figure out why these stores are doing so well.

Same with the Dollar Tree. This company is a little different from the Family Dollar General in that just about everything in the store costs ... a dollar. Cheaply-made goods, but for a buck I'm not going to complain.

I'm not real familiar with Aldi. I saw one in North Carolina, and I understand it's one of those ultra-cheap grocery stores where you bring your own bags. Kind of like the Sav-A-Lot I used to shop at in Tennessee. Great for staples, packaged food, beans, rice, soft drinks, and anything that comes in a can or box. The meat department at Sav-A-Lot scared me; there were always some funny smells coming from back there.

It's easy to see Walmart and Target in this list; any kind of discount is a good thing these days. And drugstores? People still get sick, and it wouldn't surprise me any if the over-the-counter drugs section is what's carrying the ball here. What with the economy being so squirrelly there may be more of a do-it-yourself aspect in health care. Now, if folks start buying up medical equipment for home surgery, that wouldn't shock me either.

OK. Which retailers are losing their shirts?

1 - Circuit City, with 567 store closures planned this year. Is that all of them?
2 - Ritz Camera, with 400 closures. Not difficult to see. How many people still use cameras requiring film?
3 - Goody's, with 287.
4 - Steve & Barry's, with 252.
5 - Jones Apparel, with 225 closures planned over the next two years.
6 - Blockbuster, with 150.
7 - Office Depot, with 118.
8 - RiteAid, with 117. They're a drugstore chain. What's up with that?
9 - Zales, with 115. Maybe more folks are buying their jewelry from some dude selling out of a car trunk?
10 - Gap, and Charming Shoppes, with 100 closures each.



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